Weekly Trends: Commodities still above long term support, equities bullish

Gold, crude oil, and EURUSD are still above their long term support with indications of bottom formation. Russian RTSI has managed to hold despite a fall in crude oil. There was little upward movement in KOSPI as the Korean markets had a shortened week. S&P 500 has maintained its uptrend.

This weekly Trend Analysis table uses a proprietary algorithm to identify trend direction, strength of trend, & entry/exit signals. It also indicates key support/ resistance levels based on traditional technical analysis.

GOLD	PCP	1204.40	ACTION	Hold long	S2	1150
	TREND	Down	STRENGTH	Low	S1	1200
	POSITION	Near swing bottom			R1	1220
	REMARK	May consolidate between 1150 - 1300. Its short term downtrend is weakening. Investors may accumulate on dips.			R2	1240
CRUDE	PCP	50.34	ACTION	Hold long	S2	47
	TREND	Up	STRENGTH	Low	S1	50
	POSITION	Long duration charts are indicating a bottom			R1	57
	REMARK	Long term trend is still down though it is weakening. Crude is in short term uptrend and if it sustains above 57 then a major uptrend may be considered. Avoid positional shorts.			R2	61
S&P500	PCP	2110.3	ACTION	Hold long	S2	2065
	TREND	Up	STRENGTH	High	S1	2090
	POSITION	Approaching cycle top			R1	2115
	REMARK	Avoid short selling			R2	2145
KOSPI	PCP	1961.45	ACTION	Hold long	S2	1922
	TREND	Up	STRENGTH	Low	S1	1950
	POSITION	Near short term top, long term bottom			R1	1963
	REMARK	Long term downtrend is weakening and last month's low of 1876 may be bottom for this swing. Prefer buying on dips near 1950.			R2	1990
RTSI	PCP	910.42	ACTION	Hold long	S2	830
	TREND	Up	STRENGTH	Medium	S2	893
	POSITION	Near long term bottom, rising in short term			R1	1000
	REMARK	Long term down trend is approaching a bottom. Trend is up in short term. Avoid shorts.			R2	1100
EURUSD	PCP	1.1381	ACTION	Hold long	S2	1.100
	TREND	Down trending	STRENGTH	Low	S1	1.126
	POSITION	Near long term bottom			R1	1.145
	REMARK	Long term trend is down. An uptrend may form as 1.12 is a multi years support. Traders avoid heavy short positions.			R2	1.167

Abbreviations used -

• PCP = Previous closing price
• S2 = Second support, S1 = First support
• R1 = First resistance, R2 = Second resistance

KOSPI

Buy near CMP 1958

Weekly Trends - S&P 500, Gold, Crude Oil, EURUSD, KOSPI, RTSI

This weekly Trend Analysis table uses a proprietary algorithm to identify trend direction, strength of trend, & entry/exit signals. It also indicates key support/ resistance levels based on traditional technical analysis.

Last weekend it was mentioned in this weekly report that some major trend reversals are forming, and the week did saw upward movements in gold, crude oil, and EURUSD. There are increasing possibilities of end of their long term downtrend. As mentioned earlier, Russian index RTSI has also bounced riding on crude and S&P 500 has maintained its uptrend.

GOLD	PCP	1226.50	ACTION	Hold long	S2	1200
	TREND	Down	STRENGTH	Low	S1	1220
	POSITION	Near swing bottom			R1	1240
	REMARK	May consolidate between 1150 - 1300. Its short term downtrend is weakening. Investors may accumulate on dips.			R2	1265
CRUDE	PCP	52.78	ACTION	Hold long	S2	47
	TREND	Up	STRENGTH	Low	S1	50
	POSITION	Long duration charts are indicating a bottom			R1	57
	REMARK	Long term trend is still down though it is weakening. Crude is in short term uptrend and if it sustains above 57 then a major uptrend may be considered. Avoid shorts.			R2	61
S&P500	PCP	2096.99	ACTION	Hold long	S2	2065
	TREND	Up	STRENGTH	High	S1	2090
	POSITION	Mid cycle			R1	2115
	REMARK	Avoid short selling			R2	2145
KOSPI	PCP	1957.50	ACTION	Buy on dip	S2	1922
	TREND	Up	STRENGTH	Low	S1	1950
	POSITION	Near short term top, long term bottom			R1	1963
	REMARK	Long term downtrend is weakening and last month's low of 1876 may be bottom for this swing. Prefer buying on dips near 1950.			R2	1990
RTSI	PCP	914.05	ACTION	Buy	S2	830
	TREND	Up	STRENGTH	Medium	S2	893
	POSITION	Near long term bottom, rising in short term			R1	1000
	REMARK	Long term down trend is approaching a bottom. Trend is up in short term. Avoid shorts.			R2	1100
EURUSD	PCP	1.1385	ACTION	Buy	S2	1.100
	TREND	Down trending	STRENGTH	Low	S1	1.126
	POSITION	Near long term bottom			R1	1.145
	REMARK	Long term trend is down. An uptrend may form as 1.12 is a multi years support. Traders avoid heavy short positions.			R2	1.167

Abbreviations used -

• PCP = Previous closing price
• S2 = Second support, S1 = First support
• R1 = First resistance, R2 = Second resistance

CRUDE OIL: Forming A Long Term Bottom

Crude seems to have formed a long term bottom near 44 that it touched in January this year. Multiple factors are indicating that a bottom has been formed. These are mentioned below –

1. Crude has taken support at its 17 years old trend-line (shown in red color)
2. This support also coincide with Fibonacci fan lines
3. An important 161.8% retracement level exists at 52, if gold sustains above this on a monthly basis, it will be a strong bullish confirmation
4. RSI is at deep oversold levels which have historically coincided with major bottoms
5. Our proprietary trend indicator is indicating waning of long term down trend and formation of a bottom 

Crude Oil Monthly Chart

Crude Oil: Friday, Feb 13, 2015

CRUDE OIL – Feb 13, 2015 (PCP 51.21, CMP 52.3)
SIGNAL: Buy near CMP
POSITION: Near long term bottom
TREND: Down
STRENGTH: Waning
KEY LEVELS: 45, 51.9, 57, 60

GOLD: Forming a long term bottom

Gold may not fall below 1150. It made a low of 1132 in November 2014 and is rising since then (CMP 1227). Multiple factors are indicating that it a bottom has been formed. These are mentioned below –
a. Gold could not breach 61.8% level support of its long range swing
b. RSI is indicating a clear bullish diversion
c. Gold has started breaching fan resistance lines
d. Our proprietary trend indicator is indicating waning of long term down trend and formation of a bottom

GOLD: Feb 13, 2015, Friday (CMP 1229)

GOLD – Feb 13, 2015 (PCP 1222.3, CMP 1229)

SIGNAL: Buy near CMP

POSITION: Near long term bottom

TREND: Down

STRENGTH: Waning

KEY LEVELS: 1200, 1220, 1243. 1265

RTSI: 9 Jan 2015, Monday

Book profit in RTSI long position @ CMP 849. Buy signal was generated on 3 Feb's EOD price of 752.72

Weekly Trends - S&P 500, Gold, Crude Oil, EURUSD, KOSPI, RTSI

This weekly Trend Analysis table uses a proprietary algorithm to identify trend direction, strength of trend, & entry/exit signals. It also indicates key support/ resistance levels based on traditional technical analysis. If an entry/exit signal comes on Friday, it will be mentioned in this table else it is posted in weekdays on this blog.

Some major trend reversals are forming. Gold and EURUSD are indicating possibilities of an end of their long term downtrend. Crude may also join them. Russian index RTSI may bounce riding on crude.

GOLD	PCP	1233.90	ACTION	None	S2	1200
	TREND	Down	STRENGTH	Low	S1	1220
	POSITION	Mid cycle			R1	1243
	REMARK	May consolidate between 1150 - 1300. It is forming a long term bottom but is in downtrend in medium to short term. Investors may accumulate on dips. Traders avoid heavy short positions.			R2	1265
CRUDE	PCP	51.69	ACTION	None	S2	38
	TREND	Up	STRENGTH	Low	S1	44
	POSITION	? Weekly chart is indicating a bottom			R1	57
	REMARK	Long term trend is still down. If crude sustains above 57 then an uptrend may be considered. Avoid shorts.			R2	65
S&P500	PCP	2055.47	ACTION	Hold long	S2	2000
	TREND	Up	STRENGTH	Low	S1	2030
	POSITION	Mid cycle			R1	2066
	REMARK	Avoid short selling			R2	2095
KOSPI	PCP	1955.52	ACTION		S2	1922
	TREND	Down	STRENGTH	Low	S1	1950
	POSITION	Near short term top, long term bottom			R1	1963
	REMARK	Long term downtrend is weakening and last month's low of 1876 may be bottom for this swing. Prefer buying on dips.			R2	1990
RTSI	PCP	828.4	ACTION	Hold long	S2	700
	TREND	Up	STRENGTH	Medium	S2	772
	POSITION	Near long term bottom, rising in short term			R1	893
	REMARK	Long term down trend is approaching a bottom. Trend is up in short term. Avoid shorts.			R2	1000
EURUSD	PCP	1.1316	ACTION	None	S2	1.00
	TREND	Down trending	STRENGTH	Low	S1	1.10
	POSITION	Near long term bottom			R1	1.167
	REMARK	Long term trend is down. An uptrend may form as 1.12 is a multi years support. Traders avoid heavy short positions.			R2	1.20

Abbreviations used -

• PCP = Previous closing price
• S2 = Second support, S1 = First support
• R1 = First resistance, R2 = Second resistance

KOSPI and Crude oil closed in profit

Crude oil short signal has given 6% (52.5 to 48) and KOSPI long over 3%. Long signals on S&P and RTSI are in good profits

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Crude Oil - 5 Feb, 2015 Thur.

Exit Crude Short at CMP 48.0

KOSPI - 5 Feb, 2015

SIGNAL: Exit long
POSITION: 
TREND: Uptrend weakens
CYCLE POSITION: Near cycle top 
KEY LEVELS: 1925, 1950, 2003, 2065

Exit signal on last EOD price of 1962.79. First buy signal was on 19th Jan at 1902.62, second reentry signal was on 27th Jan EOD price of 1952.4.

Crude Oil (CMP 52.5) - 4 Feb 2015

Sell signal generated on EOD price of 53.05. 

S&P 500 and RTSI Signals - Feb 3, 2015

Buy Signal in S&P mentioned on Sunday looks confirmed and suggestion to buy on dip worked perfectly. Price had dipped near first support (1970) at 1974 on Monday, Feb 2.

RTSI - we stated to wait for a signal in its weak uptrend. The prices have bounced right after that. A BUY signal is generated.